The first is the Malawi Pensions Bill . Now, usually this is a really boring topic, but there are some attention drawing issues here. First, in 2010, Malawi made the retirement age 55. Considering that the life expectancy for is 44 years for men and 51 for women , this seems harsh: the majority would be dead before eligibility. So, they lowered the age to 50, almost as cruel but not quite. Now, what do Malawians access at the age of pension? Presumably, they will have a state-sponsored account, similar to our social security (or the only parallel I can easily draw), that they can access at 50 years old. As of June 1, 2011, all employed (KEY WORD) Malawians will be forced to contribute 5% of their monthly wage to this fund; 10% of the monthly wage will also be contributed by the employer. Effectively, everyone in Malawi just got a 15% pay cut. As all the prices are going up, do you think this is fair? And the government is swiftly losing all credibility, do you think this money will be there for average citizens?
To make matters worse, remember when Malawi kicked out the British High Commissioner for noting the continuing issues with good governance or financial policy? No apology from here yet – ensuing chaos be damned! Not surprisingly, the British Government pulled their general budget assistance – a huge chunk of what lets the government operate here. So, to fill the enormous void, Malawi is promoting a Zero Deficit budget – dreaming up ways to make up budget shortfalls by any means necessary. First, they started taxing "luxury" goods like milk, bread, and meat. Now, they will be using the pension funds to supplement what the donor community will no longer provide. Luckily for everyone, the Brits still are funding 40% of the health budget or there would be very few paid healthcare workers. Unpaid healthcare workers are not happy healthcare workers…
And, if the intermittent supply of diesel and petrol was not enough, how about some more blackouts? The local, and only, power company recently declared that another of its main power stations was closed for repairs (making 3, in total), reducing the energy supply to a trickle. In response, the power company released plans for morning and evening blackouts – including from 4pm-10pm every night until the end of the year. So far, we’ve seen more short, unpredictable blackouts and bought a small backup battery to power a few lights and a computer. In combination with the diesel shortage to supply generators, people and businesses are really facing a power crisis.
So, what are Malawians doing in response to their government’s policies? Well, so far, not much. There have been some criticisms in the papers, some anger in the radio news, and some stirrings of protest. In fact, there are supposed to be massive demonstrations tomorrow, Wednesday, and rumors already abound about tactics to create chaos. However, fear of arrest, detainment, or other undesirable outcomes keeps most people away. The continuing petrol and diesel shortages might reduce crowd size as well.
Malawi is usually a very calm place – too calm, some might say. It could be getting interesting around here (from a political perspective – still excruciatingly boring from a social perspective). We’ll keep you posted. And, after a preemptive warning, we’ll stay away from the action behind our very large walls….
Really does seem like things are getting worse and worse. Any chance of a Zimbabwe-like inflationary-spiral as the government tries to fund itself? Will the foreign currency controls be further tightened? Stay safe and keep the updates coming.
ReplyDeleteSasha
This is actually a really interesting topic. People are always talking about forex (foreign exchange) here. The kwatcha is overvalued and everybody knows it. The black market uses an exchange rate 20-30% higher than the official exchange rate. As a result, other countries won't let Malawi pay its bills in anything but dollars, which are increasingly hard to find. All this is to say the foreign currency controls are already tight, though the blank markets do seem to be largely tolerated at the moment.
ReplyDeleteThere is talk of possibly devaluing the kwatcha which would help Malawi's economy grow in the long term, but in the short term would hit the poor's pocketbook pretty hard and increase its bills for imported good (which is almost huge). I don't see it.
I think we're still a good ways from Zimbabwe but if things got ugly here and more donor money is scared away the kwatcha could eventually collapse which dramatic Zimbabwe-like repercussions.